Scenario analysis as a tool for investors, companies and regulators on the way to climate neutrality


Scenario analysis is an important tool for identifying and understanding the potential impacts of these climate-related structural changes. The SATISFY project will explore how scenario analysis can serve as a tool to assess, manage, and communicate firm-specific climate risks and opportunities to support the transition to a climate neutral economy. Overarching, the study analyzes which scenarios are used in the German market and internationally, how they differ, and which hurdles exist regarding their use.


In detail, the use of scenarios is analyzed for three company/asset types that are crucial for the transformation:


  • Emissions-intensive manufacturing companies, SMEs, and building/real estate companies.
  • As a thematic thread, the question of the transferability of macroeconomic climate scenarios to the company level runs through all three company/asset types.
  • Finally, SATISFY will transfer the analysis to the financial institution level to understand how the financial sector can more appropriately assess its climate risks.

Subproject 1: Analysis of energy-intensive industries as well as banks and SMEs

Subproject 2: Basics of scenario analysis and analysis of industry and buildings

Prof. Dr. Karsten Neuhoff

Subproject 3: Analysis of the financial sector and overarching recommendations for action