Szenarioanalyse als ein Werkzeug für Investor:innen, Unternehmen und Regulatoren auf dem Weg hin zu Klimaneutralität

SATISFY – Scenario Analysis as a Tool for Investor, Firms and Regulators on the path to climate neutrality

Die Szenarioanalyse ist ein wichtiges Instrument, um die potenziellen Auswirkungen dieser klimabedingten Strukturveränderungen zu erkennen und zu verstehen. Das Projekt SATISFY wird untersuchen, wie die Szenarioanalyse als Instrument zur Bewertung, zum Management und zur Kommunikation von unternehmensspezifischen Klimarisiken und -chancen dienen und somit den Übergang zu einer klimaneutralen Wirtschaft unterstützen kann. Übergreifend wird analysiert, welche Szenarien im deutschen Markt und international genutzt werden, wie sich diese unterscheiden und welche Hürden hinsichtlich der Nutzung bestehen.

Im Detail wird der Einsatz von Szenarien für drei Unternehmens-/Asset-Typen analysiert, die für den Wandel entscheidend sind:

emissionsintensive Produktionsunternehmen, KMU und Gebäude-/Immobilienunternehmen.
Als thematischer roter Faden zieht sich die Frage nach der Übertragbarkeit makroökonomischen Klimaszenarien auf die Unternehmensebene durch alle drei Unternehmens-/Asset-Typen.
Schließlich wird SATISFY die Analyse auf die Ebene der Finanzinstitute übertragen, um zu verstehen, wie der Finanzsektor seine Klimarisiken angemessener bewerten kann.

Teilprojekt 1: Analyse energieintensiver Industrien sowie Banken und KMU

Prof. Dr. Ulf Moslener

Teilprojekt 2: Grundlagen der Szenarienanalyse sowie Analyse von Industrie und Gebäuden

Prof. Dr. Karsten Neuhoff

Teilprojekt 3: Analyse des Finanzsektors und übergreifende Handlungsempfehlungen

Prof. Dr. Christina Bannier

Publikationen von SATISFY

SATISFY I Are sustainability-linked loans designed to effectively incentivize corporate sustainability? A framework for review

Are sustainability-linked loans designed to effectively incentivize corporate sustainability? A framework for review

This paper analyzes sustainability-linked loans (SLLs), a new category of debt instrument that incorporates environmen- tal, social, and governance (ESG) considerations. Using a large sample of loans issued between 2017 and 2022, we assess the design of SLLs by evaluating their key perfor- mance indicators (KPIs) using a comprehensive quality score. Our findings suggest that SLLs only partially rely on KPIs that generate credible sustainability incentives. We docu- ment that SLL borrowers do not significantly improve their ESG performance post issuance and show that stock mar- kets are rather indifferent to the issuance of SLLs by EU borrowers, while SLL issuance announcements by US bor- rowers are met with significantly negative abnormal returns by investors. These findings call into question the beneficial sustainability and signaling effects that borrowers may hope to achieve by issuing ESG-linked debt.

SATISFY I Climate scenarios in banks – a case study

Climate scenarios in banks – a case study

In this report, we develop and apply a typology that helps banks differentiate climate scenarios based on their characteristics and discuss four use cases. With the increasing importance of climate scenarios for assessing the risks and opportunities of climate change in the financial system, banks face the question of which climate scenarios to select for different use cases. We review academic and grey literature to develop a typology that helps banks differentiate climate scenarios using a heuristics approach. We differentiate commonly used scenarios based on the typology. We then apply the typology through a case study in a large German promotional bank. Being the first case study with a bank in this field, the paper adds to the literature by providing a characterisation of climate scenarios for banks and by supporting the selection of a climate scenario amongst banks.

SATISFY I European corporate sustainability reporting - The Financial Materiality Compass as an auxiliary tool

European corporate sustainability reporting - The Financial Materiality Compass as an auxiliary tool

European companies in scope of the new Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) will have to report on all sustainability topics that are either financially-material or impact-material (or both) to them. Determining materiality in an extensive individual analysis, however, proves to be an expensive undertaking that will encumber resource-constrained and smaller companies in particular. To offer an easily applicable auxiliary tool, we create a comprehensive sector-specific Financial Materiality Compass (FMC) along the lines of the European Sustainabil-ity Reporting Standards (ESRS). The FMC relies on an extensive three-step analysis where we combine panel regression results on financial performance data with self-identified materiality assessments from large corpora-tions and expert interview evaluations in a European setting. We find that for companies in the consumer staples and energy sector nine out of 10 ESRS categories are financially material, but only one, respectively two, of these categories show a strong materiality. For companies in the health care, information technologies and real estate sector, in contrast, we report the lowest number of financially material ESRS categories in total. Against the back-drop of significant reporting costs, our results hence provide companies with a robust, science-based orientation in determining their sustainability reporting requirements and corresponding data collection needs.

SATISFY I Evaluating TCFD reporting - A new application of zero-shot analysis to climate-related financial disclosures

Evaluating TCFD reporting—A new application of zero-shot analysis to climate-related financial disclosures

We examine climate-related disclosures in a large sample of reports published by banks that officially endorsed the recommendations of the Task Force for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). In doing so, we introduce a new application of the zero-shot text classification. By developing a set of fine-grained TCFD labels, we show that zero-shot analysis is a useful tool for classifying climate-related disclosures without further model training. Overall, our findings indicate that corporate climate-related disclosures increased after the launch of the TCFD recommendations and following individual endorsements. However, there are marked differences in the extent of reporting by recommended disclosure topic, suggesting that some recommendations have not yet been fully met. Our findings yield important conclusions for the design of climate-related disclosure frameworks.

SATISFY I Scenario Analysis for Net Zero: The Applicability of Climate Neutrality Studies for Transitioning Firms in the German Building Sector and Energy-intensive Industry

Scenario Analysis for Net Zero: The Applicability of Climate Neutrality Studies for Transitioning Firms in the German Building Sector and Energy-intensive Industry

Various stakeholders are increasingly encouraging companies from the real economy to adopt measures facilitating their transition towards carbon neutrality. In this context, companies are expected to implement forward-looking strategies and climate-related reporting practices using scenario analysis aligned with scientific evidence and credible pathways to net zero carbon emissions. This paper examines the potential of scenario analysis as element for transitioning to net zero. We review and compare eight existing economy and sector level climate neutrality studies for Germany that were published between 2019 and 2021, analysing their respective applicability as a science-based reference scenario for companies to strengthen strategy development and forward-looking reporting practices. Using the logical framework approach, we assess relevant transition indicators like technologies, energy and resource efficiency, carbon pricing, and other steering instruments for the building and energy-intensive industry sectors. These indicators serve to measure progress towards climate neutrality and could be included as a crucial component in transition plans. We find that, although modelling approaches for the studies differ, they often converge on similar results that can partially be translated to indicators at the firm level and, thereby, may serve as reference scenario for their transition planning.

Veröffentlichungsdatum: 2023
Autor:innen: Fernanda Ballesteros, Franziska Schütze, Catherine Marchewitz & Alexandra Hüttel
Publikationsart: Discussion Paper
Keywords: Climate Change, Scenarios Analysis, Decarbonization, Sustainability Reporting, Transition Plans, Sectoral Pathways
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